Hand odds

I’m sure you already know the rankings of each hand.

You know, Royal Flush beats a straight flush beats four of a kind beats a full house, etc.

But you should be aware of the odds at hand.

Consider this:

You’ve got an A8. I have 99. The flop comes up A 8 9. You have two pair, and I have three of a kind.

Who is more likely to pull a full house out in the last two cards?

You only need to catch an A or a 8. However, I have to magically pull a pair out, right?

Almost.

I’m favored to win, almost three times as much. You have fewer cards left (four, at best, the remaining two A and two 8 ) whereas I only need to catch any two more cards OR that last 8. If I pull that last 8 out I win the hand - my trip 9s beat your trip 8s on the full house.

My odds before the last two cards are dealt of getting the full house is slightly better than 33%. Your odds of pulling the full house at that point are actually just under 17%.

Actually, it gets even more interesting if you consider suits.

If you managed to get four parts of the flush after the flop, the odds of catching that last card to make your hand is nearly 35%. Or only 1.86 to 1 against you doing it. You’re more likey to pull a flush out than the full house. But not that much more likely.

Odds are tricky. Which is why the best poker players don’t look at their cards.