Pot odds

Once you get the hang of the odds of your hand actually coming through, you need to then work out the pot odds.

The pot odds are not strictly statistical odds as much as they are a ration of the amount of money you stand to win versus the odds of your hand winning the pot. If there is $50 in the pot and it costs you $5 to call, you’ll have to win the hand 1 in 11 times to break even. That’s because playing 11 times will cost you $55, but when you win the one time you get $55.

So now you should compare your hand to what is in the pot.

If you take the odds I wrote about yesterday, and do the math, you’ll see that if you’re on a flush draw after the flop your odds of winning are slightly better than 2 to 1 (actually 1.9 to one but let’s keep the math simple). If the bet is $5 to you and there’s $20 in the pot, your pot odds are 25 to 5 or 5 to 1. In order to break even you have to win one out of six times, but at the current strength of your hand chasing the flush will let you win one out of three times. You are doing better than breaking even, you’re making a profit in the long run!

If pot odds are better than hand odds, you are making a profit.

Which explains why it’s sometimes OK to chase the draw to an inside straight. Sure, that’s not so fantastic odds, but if someone just raised to high that the pot odds are now 1 to 1 or even better, there’s no reason you shouldn’t take part.