NBA Finals

Normally I’m not one to bet on sports. There’s just too much to go wrong.

[pause]

OK, that was funny, wasn’t it?
The Superbowl, now, that’s a different matter. But I digress.

The NBA finals are now going to game 7. And I thought this might be a good place to discuss a little point spread information with respect to the home court when it comes to basketball.

First, the home court advantage in the NBA averages out to about 3.5 points. Which means that if you have two equal teams, that the spread should be -3.5 for the home team. The current spread on game 7 is San Antonio -5; if it were played at a neutral site the spread should then statistically be SA -1.5. But I have the feeling that all 5 points are home court points. I’d say that outside of injuries to starting players that home court advantage is the largest factor.

The over/under is 174, and that’s a number which I hope I never have to determine. There’s more voodoo than science in picking the over/under. Previous history weighs heavy but since this is the championship game, all bets are out the window. To coin a phrase.

(By the way, in the NFL home field advantage is generally worth 2 points, and nearly non-existent in baseball)